Don’t Take the Spread

Three close friends and I found an affordable mansion. It was indeed a mansion and it was indeed within our post grad budget because of the dangerous, high crime area it was located in.

When I moved to South Phoenix I was promptly served what everyone told me I would get. A massive, psyche-shattering robbery. Strap in for this one.

It was my first day of work at a brand new corporate job in Scottsdale. I was frantically tearing about the house looking for my car keys. Nothing like being late on your first day to start off hot.

As I was on my hands and knees peering under the couch I suddenly sat up.

“Jeez I wonder if I left them in my car that’s dangerous my car might get stolen…”

I went outside, no cars. Not my car, nor any of my three roommates cars.

I walked back inside and went straight for the kitchen table. There on the empty table was a lone key bowl. The key bowl was such a good idea in theory…

Three wallets, three laptops, four cars, all gone. I calmly called upstairs for my roommates to come downstairs. I did the first thing a white boy like myself knows, I called my mom.

“Well did you call the police?!”

Right, fuck. I called Phoenix PD.

“911 what’s your emergency?”

Hi, yeah we got robbed, like, really robbed.

The cop showed up a few minutes later and asked what was taken. When I mentioned four cars were stolen he brushed it off.

“Oh, so, you mean the dealer came back and repossessed all your cars?”

Nah dude we weren’t repo’d we were robbed. Then he got giddy.

“Four cars wow this is the biggest case I’ve ever worked!”

Dude, fuckkkkk you. You’re having a career day and it’s my worst, pal.

“Okay, well, we’re gonna start searching the neighborhood. Most times when a vehicle is stolen it’s abandoned within a square mile radius and they come back to get it later.”

Word. I’m gonna go find my car.

So I called my friend Denise who has a car because, I don’t have a car. While I waited for her I called my job to tell them I wouldn’t be making it for the first day, and I’m pretty sure they thought I was kidding. When Denise arrived she was incredulous, making up for my lack of a freak out.

“FOUR CARS?!”

Yep, now, alright let’s get going wasting time here.

“So wait, your plan is for us to find them, like right now?”

You just turn the key in the ignition there…

“Dude, what? This is crazy we’re not gonna find these cars!”

Nobody steals from Forbes Shannon and gets away with it! Shut up and let’s go!

I understand how highly improbable this mission was. But doing some research on it after the fact, it wasn’t a lost cause. Sure we were HEAVY underdogs but in 2017, 59.1% of stolen motor vehicles were eventually recovered. (The Statista data doesn’t specify in what state they were recovered in though.)

I mean hell, only 15% of stolen livestock was ever recovered. We just weren’t looking for a dairy cow, but a Silver ‘02 Honda Civic. Plus a Silver ’02 Honda Civic without tires can still have some value, unlike a cow with no legs. You can always buy new tires…

The best way to tell this story is through the eyes of a sports betting parlor (the house). The house evaluates two people (or teams, horses, etc.) pitted against each other and creates sophisticated betting odds for the outcome, which they then let bettors “buy.” Bettors buy the odds (aka gambling), and the event (match, fight, horse race, etc.) happens. If their team (fighter, horse, etc.) wins, they get paid out according to the odds that they bought.

The house always offers odds that put themselves in the position to take the biggest cut for themselves. Somebody always loses in betting, but the house always wins.

One of the simplest forms of betting is the spread. In the spread, you don’t bet on which teams wins or loses, you bet by how much they win or lose by. For example, let’s say the New England Patriots are playing the New York Jets. New England is annoyingly the best ever, and the Jets are, well, the Jets. This is a real life headline from September, 2018:

Jets vs Browns Final Score: Jets Collapse in Embarrassing 21–17 Loss

Now let’s say there’s some real extenuating circumstances surrounding the game that indicate a blow out of historic proportions win for the Patriots.

All of the Jets quarterbacks simultaneously retired and their punter will start!

Whatever, but let’s say the Pats are favored -45. They’re expected to WIN by at LEAST 45 points (six TDs and one FG with a shut out, for example). If you bet on the Pats, they have to win by at least 45 to win money. You bet the Jets, you expect them to lose, you just hope they do it by less than 45.

Here’s the thing, odds change. The house will dictate the odds at which you buy your spread, reacting to weather, real time injuries, and all sorts of other intangibles. Maybe the morning of the Patriots-Jets game Brady wants to go golfing instead, because that’s how little he thinks of the Jets. Without Brady playing the spread in the hour before game time has drastically changed, the Patriots are favored in this spread for now only -21. (Disclosure: Betting itself is a deep science, and I’m vastly oversimplifying this for humorous purposes.)

To quantify the odds in the situation I’m in, and how they change, let’s pretend we’re betting on a football spread between the South Phoenix Robbers and the College Grad Comics. At this point, riding shotgun with Denise hell bent on finding anything at all, the house says the South Phoenix Robbers are favored -99. Really really bad odds. Defending-State-Champs-D-I-highschool-team-playing-the-home-schooled-kids bad odds.

South Phoenix Robbers -99

Denise and I are driving suspiciously down the streets of my neighborhood when we both gasped in disbelief.

There, three blocks from the house, was my roommates’ black 04 Honda Accord.

“Holy shit…”

Yeah you can say that again, Denise! Nobody steals from Forbes Shannon and gets away with it! I called 911, as the cop had instructed.

“911 what’s your emergency?”

Hey, yeah, I just recovered a stolen vehicle.

“Really?! We never find those! I’ll send out a unit!”

The 911 operator cheered while I took comfort in the changing odds. The house takes note of the speed the College Grad Comics find the first car.

South Phoenix Robbers -72

The same cop that came to my house was the unit 911 alerted. He cruised by, got out of his car and strutted over to Denise and I. As we stood outside the recovered Honda, he offered me a fist bump.

“Dude! Nice…”

Thanks man, I’m gonna go find the rest.

Denise and I made a right, and then a left, and voila, car number two. You can’t make this shit up. I called 911 again.

“911 what’s your emergency?”

Hi yeah I just recovered a stolen vehicle.

“Oh, yeah, I already sent a unit out to you sir.”

Yeah Becky well I found a second one so, hop to-it!

The same cop as before showed up, strutted, and again offered me a fist bump with the same dry, surprised, remark.

“Dude! Nice…”

Thanks man, I’m gonna go find the rest.

South Phoenix Robbers -28

It’s halftime and our heroes Denise and Forbes have already recovered two of the four stolen vehicles. A full recovery seems possible for the College Grad Comics, and the South Phoenix Robbers have seen their odds of victory nearly quartered.

South Phoenix Robbers -35

Phoenix PD let us know they were unable to get finger prints off either of the two recovered cars. Office fist bump touched the door handle without gloves and got his shit all over it. The house has swung the odds back in favor of the South Phoenix Robbers. Bush league.

South Phoenix Robbers -6.5

Denise shouted and punched me over and over in excitement.

“Car number three!”

I called 911.

“911 what’s your emergency?”

Hey…

“Oh, it’s you again.”

I found a third car Becky! Send a unit to 16th street I’m callin the shots!

The same cop, this time in utter disbelief, put his hand on my shoulder and looked me dead ass in the face and asked,

“Son, do you want a job?”

That’s nice of you sir, but it’s 2016 and it’s a really bad time to be a white cop.

He broke open my roommates car so we could dig inside. In the backseat, in my laundry bag, was all of our wallets and all of our laptops and the neighbors lawn gnome. Denise articulated my disbelief.

“What the fuck are these guys doing with their lives?”

Final: South Phoenix Robbers 31, College Grad Comics 28

After a long and painful day of searching, the College Grad Comics came up one vehicle short of a full recovery, and pulling off the most ultimate underdog performance of all time. The house started with the South Phoenix Robbers as -99 point favorites before meagerly winning by a field goal.

Sure, the South Phoenix Robbers still won, but by only a 2002 Honda Civic. They were supposed to win by four cars, three laptops, three wallets, and a lawn gnome. Denise considered that a win and she rolled her arms across my shoulders.

“Nobody steals from Forbes Shannon and gets away with, well, all of it!”

Works Cited:

Jets vs Browns Final Score. ganggreennation.com https://www.ganggreennation.com/2018/9/20/17885614/jets-vs-browns-final-score-jets-collapse-in-embarrassing-21-17-loss

Recovery rate of stolen property 2017, by type. Statista.com. https://www.statista.com/statistics/252444/recovery-rate-of-stolen-property-in-the-us-by-type/